How Accurate Is Implied Volatility?
Implied volatility (IV) is often treated as the market’s best estimate of future uncertainty and risk. But just how accurate is it in predicting actual ...
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Blogs
The Worst Crisis?
May 20, 2025The VIX was tailor-made for the financial panic that swept through the markets in early April. After languishing at relatively low levels for most of 2023 and 2024, the VIX exploded to a high of 60.13 on April 7th, a ...
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From Shock to Signals: What Implied Dividends Reveal About Recession Risk
May 7, 2025Fears of retaliatory trade wars have sparked concern of an impending recession in the U.S. A renewed tariff war could raise the risk of higher input costs, disrupted supply chains, and weaker corporate margins—factors that can pressure earnings and dividend ...
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A Golden Parachute?
April 23, 2025Gold is in the spotlight, and for good reason. Economic and political disorder, instability, and general uncertainty are dominating the markets this year, and they are tailor-made to support gold. Few assets have escaped the current market turmoil, but gold ...
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India’s Dividend Outlook for Public Sector Undertakings
April 16, 2025Narendra Modi’s re-election in 2024 for a historic third term marks a continuation of India’s decade-long push toward economic reform and political stability. His government’s ongoing focus on privatizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), ramping up infrastructure investment, maintaining macroeconomic discipline, and ...
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Reading the Yield Tea Leaves: Why Negative Option Skew Matters in Trump’s Tariff Era
April 3, 2025Garrett DeSimone, PhD The “Trump Tariff Wars 2.0” have given rise to increased market volatility and broad fears regarding stagflation. This has placed the Fed in a precarious position, as it must balance the risks between declining future growth and ...
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24th March UK dividend cuts / amends
March 24, 2025– Santander has cancelled its 2020 interim (paid in November 2020) choosing instead to make a single payment in May 2021. Declared dividends unaffected. – Mortgage Advice Bureau was going to declare 12.8p, but instead has declared 6.4p now with ...
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VIX Futures Term Structure: A Warning Sign?
March 20, 2025Although the VIX is often cited as the market’s fear or anxiety gauge, the shape of its futures curve is often overlooked. The futures term structure, or the curve displaying the relationship of different contracts and maturities to one another, ...
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Vol Crush: Dependable and Consistent
February 20, 2025Future uncertainty and anxiety are two of the main drivers of implied volatility. This was apparent last month when Nvidia precipitously fell 17% upon the sudden appearance of DeepSeek. Less well reported was the effect the AI newcomer had on ...
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Who Will Benefit from the Tariff War?
February 13, 2025The global energy market is once again experiencing a shift. China recently imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and natural gas imports, effective February 10, 2025. These tariffs were announced as a retaliatory measure against recent U.S. trade actions. ...
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