Is A Bitcoin Bubble Forming?
Bitcoin just might be the biggest financial story since the election. For a variety of reasons (most of which center around prospects of a much ...
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Blogs
Demand for Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Could They Signify a Market Bottom?
July 26, 2022The Consumer Discretionary SPDR Fund (XLY) is down around 30% YTD, the most by any sector this year. The XLY tends to underperform the market in times of economic downturn, as consumers cut excess spending into discretionary goods. Generally, when ...
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Inflation: Don’t Buy the High!
July 19, 2022Joseph Kennedy, the 35th President’s father, supposedly said right before the 1929 crash, “If shoeshine boys are giving stock tips, then it’s time to get out of the market.” Although most likely apocryphal, it does point out that we all ...
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Have Recent Economic Events Deterred Retail Option Traders?
July 6, 2022Market volatility induced by macroeconomic factors has brought into question the resiliency of today’s retail option trader. The recent bear market has led to sustained losses for these traders across a variety of asset classes, likely reducing wealth along with ...
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Gamma Gravity: Negative Gamma is Not a Volatility Black Hole
June 16, 2022The concept of negative dealer gamma has gained notoriety as the grim reaper of returns in index equity markets. This anxiety about negative dealer gamma originates from studying dealer hedging behavior; negative gamma exposure (GEX) necessitates persistent selling in falling ...
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The Ukraine War: Surprising Effects
May 25, 2022Last March, I reviewed the Ukrainian war and its effect on certain commodity-based implied volatilities most influenced by the war, namely crude oil, natural gas, and wheat. Then early in its development, it was apparent that “the consensus was wrong ...
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Elevated Rate Uncertainty and the Bleed into Housing Construction
April 25, 2022Inflationary pressures and subsequent hawkish Federal commentary have led to bloodshed in the bond market, with treasuries posting their worst quarter since 1980. The aggressive rise in treasury yields also has a significant impact on real economic activity, as elevated ...
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Crypto Prices and Volatility: Unexpected Observations
April 18, 2022Recent developments in crypto currencies since the beginning of the Ukrainian war are surprising, to say the least, and may indicate whether crypto currencies are indeed a viable trading and hedging vehicle for the long term. Surprisingly, early indications are ...
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War and Volatility: It’s Not That Clear
March 21, 2022As of this writing, we are in the fourth week of the Russian-Ukrainian war. As is usually the case with war, its progress has been unpredictable and even surprising. Yogi Berra put it best: “It's tough to make predictions, especially ...
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Equities Get Caught in Vanna Hedging Wave
February 17, 2022In the final week of January 2022, the equity market experienced jaw-dropping intraday price whipsaws. On Monday, January 24, 2022, the S&P 500 saw a midday reversal of nearly 200 points, ending nearly flat to the open. What could have ...
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