Blogs
Tail Risk in Action: Identifying Stocks Vulnerable to Oil Volatility Shocks
June 20, 2025Late last week, Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, sending shockwaves through global oil markets. After nearly a week of escalating conflict during the week of June 16, markets remain volatile as investors grapple with uncertainty around ...
Read moreCrude Oil: Not Shocking
June 20, 2025The latest hostilities in the Middle East between Israel and Iran have obvious and significant implications for crude oil futures and implied volatility. Although Israel’s initial strike was anticipated before the attack, it came as a surprise to the market ...
Read moreThe Worst Crisis?
May 20, 2025The VIX was tailor-made for the financial panic that swept through the markets in early April. After languishing at relatively low levels for most of 2023 and 2024, the VIX exploded to a high of 60.13 on April 7th, a ...
Read moreFrom Shock to Signals: What Implied Dividends Reveal About Recession Risk
May 7, 2025Fears of retaliatory trade wars have sparked concern of an impending recession in the U.S. A renewed tariff war could raise the risk of higher input costs, disrupted supply chains, and weaker corporate margins—factors that can pressure earnings and dividend ...
Read moreA Golden Parachute?
April 23, 2025Gold is in the spotlight, and for good reason. Economic and political disorder, instability, and general uncertainty are dominating the markets this year, and they are tailor-made to support gold. Few assets have escaped the current market turmoil, but gold ...
Read moreReading the Yield Tea Leaves: Why Negative Option Skew Matters in Trump’s Tariff Era
April 3, 2025Garrett DeSimone, PhD The “Trump Tariff Wars 2.0” have given rise to increased market volatility and broad fears regarding stagflation. This has placed the Fed in a precarious position, as it must balance the risks between declining future growth and ...
Read moreVIX Futures Term Structure: A Warning Sign?
March 20, 2025Although the VIX is often cited as the market’s fear or anxiety gauge, the shape of its futures curve is often overlooked. The futures term structure, or the curve displaying the relationship of different contracts and maturities to one another, ...
Read moreVol Crush: Dependable and Consistent
February 20, 2025Future uncertainty and anxiety are two of the main drivers of implied volatility. This was apparent last month when Nvidia precipitously fell 17% upon the sudden appearance of DeepSeek. Less well reported was the effect the AI newcomer had on ...
Read moreWho Will Benefit from the Tariff War?
February 13, 2025The global energy market is once again experiencing a shift. China recently imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and natural gas imports, effective February 10, 2025. These tariffs were announced as a retaliatory measure against recent U.S. trade actions. ...
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