Blogs
Forecasting Dividends in Crises
July 10, 2026In evaluating the value of investments in different stocks and the dividend payments companies make, equity dividend analysts often weigh several factors. These may include: The formulaic approach of investing in a “safe” company that tends to pay a consistent dividend, albeit without a significant increase year-over-year. Or conversely, investing in companies that are consistently generous dividend payers with growing ...
Read moreHow Accurate Is Implied Volatility?
June 15, 2026Implied volatility (IV) is often treated as the market’s best estimate of future uncertainty and risk. But just how accurate is it in predicting actual future price variation? And is there a broader implication to the answer? To find out, ...
Read moreThe Dividend Signal Hidden in Options Prices
June 8, 2026By: Garrett DeSimone, PhD and Anton Rotach Trailing dividend yield is one of the most widely used signals in equity investing. It is also, by construction, backward-looking. It tells you what a company paid in dividends over the last twelve ...
Read moreElevated Risk Premiums
May 18, 2026Wars in the Mideast and Ukraine, oil prices up sharply year-to-date, continued tariff and trade uncertainty, a private credit mini-meltdown, rumblings about an AI bubble, and economic uncertainty at record levels—any one of these could lead to the conclusion that ...
Read moreGold: An Inconsistent Hedge
April 20, 2026Since ancient times, gold has been regarded as an enduring store of value. Buoyed by its push toward record highs last January, supporters cast it as an all-purpose hedge — against inflation, geopolitical risk, and broad-based uncertainty, all while touting ...
Read morePricing the Ceasefire – UPDATED
April 14, 2026Garrett DeSimone, PhD Oscar Shih Following the collapse of US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, the Brent crude RND has shifted meaningfully. The mode migrated from 89 to 92 in moneyness, and the forward itself rose from $94.75 to $99.36 — ...
Read morePricing the Ceasefire: What Brent Crude Options Reveal About Conflict Risk
April 9, 2026By: Garrett DeSimone and Oscar Shih On April 8th, a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran was announced just 90 minutes before President Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Risk appetite snapped back across asset ...
Read moreCrude Oil Volatility: Not Unprecedented
March 19, 2026Geopolitics are dominating the markets, and crude oil is front and center. The war in Iran, and the related closing of the Straits of Hormuz, have led to the most severe supply constraints since the oil embargoes of the 1970s. ...
Read moreWhen Two SPX Expirations Collide: What Happens Every Third Thursday at 3:45 pm?
March 11, 2026By: Oscar Shih Volatility skew serves as a widely recognized measure of investor perception of downside jump risk. It reflects the market’s directional bias - or the extent to which traders are more concerned about the underlying asset rising or ...
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