Blogs
Commodity Futures: Some Developments from 2025
December 16, 2025Commodity futures were not immune to the main themes that moved markets in 2025. As usual, geopolitics, supply/demand factors, and domestic and international economic conditions were the most significant market drivers. However, one factor in particular – economic policy uncertainty ...
Read moreInside the WBD Bidding War: A Look at Market-Implied Deal Probabilities
December 12, 2025Garrett DeSimone, PhD Saugat Shrestha The escalating takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has become a real-time case study in how market prices deal with uncertainty. Paramount Skydance’s hostile $30 per-share cash bid—launched after WBD moved forward with a ...
Read moreOvervalued?
November 24, 2025Aggressive bull markets often lead to speculation about whether they are overvalued or fundamentally unsound and therefore susceptible to a sudden and extreme end. The current AI-powered bull market, which has been in place since ChatGPT blew on to the ...
Read moreBig Tech’s Dominance & Rising Crash Risk
November 13, 2025On “Liberation Day”, markets experienced a sharp reset. Since that time, the subsequent rebound in U.S. equities has been led overwhelmingly by the top 10 names in the S&P500 (‘SPX’). As shown in the chart below, this portfolio, dominated by ...
Read moreSPX 0DTE Covered Call: Optimal Strike Selection
October 21, 2025Two strategies appear to be dominating both retail and institutional trading in today's market: covered call ETFs, pulling in billions of AUM, and Zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) options, now accounting for more than half of SPX options volume. Let’s combine the two ...
Read moreSelling Saturdays: Weekend Risk Premia in 1DTE Put-Write Strategies
October 20, 2025The meteoric rise of 0DTE options has spawned an ecosystem of ETF and overlay strategies centered on harvesting ultra-short-term risk premia, while simultaneously attracting significant retail participation. However, ultra-short option strategies can embed unique risks distinct from traditional longer-dated options, ...
Read moreCrude Oil and Trading OPEC
October 16, 2025As a percentage of worldwide production of crude oil, OPEC’s share remains dominant. With 13 member countries, and 10 affiliates (OPEC+), it represents 35-40% of yearly production and approximately 80% of proven reserves. It is therefore not surprising that the ...
Read moreOptions Data Reveals Early Bets on Argentina’s Banking Sector
September 23, 2025Argentina has spent years battling runaway inflation, a shaky currency, and mounting debt. These troubles have weighed on local businesses and dragged down U.S.–listed shares (of American Depository Receipts [ADRs]) of Argentine companies. Against this backdrop, Grupo Financiero Galicia (ticker: ...
Read moreA Gold Bubble? Options Insight
September 18, 2025The equity market continues to make new all-time highs, riding the back of an AI boom and lower interest rates. At the same time, it seems to be ignoring a steady stream of potential bad news – slowing employment, stubborn ...
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