The January Barometer: Fact, Fiction, or Both?
January 11, 2024

The start of the year always brings predictions of what the new year will bring. Among the most popular Wall Street auguries is the so-called “January Barometer," or the belief that the market's investment performance in January is indicative of ...

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Stocking Stuffers: Macy’s Potential Buyout and Options Expectations
December 14, 2023

On Monday morning, Macy's stock experienced a significant surge of over 20%, propelled by news of a potential buyout from two prominent hedge funds—Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management. The proposed buyout, valued at $5.8 billion, offered shareholders an enticing ...

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The Dollar and Crude Oil: Not What It Used to Be!
December 7, 2023

One of the most often repeated market observation is the inverse relationship between the price of oil and the value of the US dollar. The logic is simple: first, as the US dollar appreciates, the cost of oil in local ...

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The VIX: Upside Potential?
November 8, 2023

Given the significantly increased tensions due to the war in the Middle East and its unexpected nature, the reaction of the VIX has been muted, to say the least. In the two weeks following the unexpected outbreak of war in ...

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Unveiling the Rise of 0-DTE Options: Analyzing SPY Trading Behavior on FOMC Meeting Day
October 12, 2023

The popularity of 0-day to expiration (0-DTE) options among investors has surged since their introduction in 2022. Given the relatively recent emergence of 0-DTE options, research into their intraday behavior is still in its early stages. In this post, we ...

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The New Situation in the Middle East and Crude Oil
October 9, 2023

Before the unexpected outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast over the weekend, it looked like the rally in crude was finally running out of steam. Unfortunately, crude is now part of the "fear trade" nexus, along with gold, the VIX, ...

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The VIX Isn’t Broken!
September 5, 2023

Over the last few months, there has been a steady chorus of traders and social media commentators claiming that the VIX is somehow “broken,” i.e., the index no longer responds adequately or sufficiently to economic crises, market movement, or sentiment. ...

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Implied Correlations: On the Rise from All-Time Lows?
August 30, 2023

Correlations play a pivotal yet sometimes overlooked role in predicting future market volatility. The correlation between stocks within a portfolio reflects their tendency to move in tandem. Stocks that exhibit strong positive correlation indicate a lack of diversification, subsequently amplifying ...

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The Ukraine War: Are Grain Shortages Imminent?
July 31, 2023

The war in Ukraine continues with no clear winner in site. Last month’s attempted coup in Russia served to intensify both sides’ determination to gain an advantage, whether through pressure on the battlefield or through other, indirect means. For Russia, ...

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