Crude Oil Volatility: Not Unprecedented
Geopolitics are dominating the markets, and crude oil is front and center. The war in Iran, and the related closing of the Straits of Hormuz, ...
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Blogs
When Two SPX Expirations Collide: What Happens Every Third Thursday at 3:45 pm?
March 11, 2026By: Oscar Shih Volatility skew serves as a widely recognized measure of investor perception of downside jump risk. It reflects the market’s directional bias - or the extent to which traders are more concerned about the underlying asset rising or ...
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The 0-DTE Variance Premium: MAG7 Reward More and Punish Harder
February 23, 2026The SEC's recent approval of Monday and Wednesday expiries for single-stock options marks a significant evolution in the options market. Until now, daily expirations have been the exclusive domain of major index products and ETFs. The extension of 0-DTE trading ...
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Are the Markets More Volatile Now?
February 18, 2026The common perception among most traders and investors is that we live in increasingly uncertain times and that the markets are reacting with increased volatility and heightened event risk. Abnormal price swings due to unexpected news, whether it be economic, ...
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A Silver Bubble?
January 20, 2026It is early 2026, and certain trends from 2025 are carrying over into the new year. most prominently, the seemingly inexorable rally in precious metals continues unabated. Gold used to be the standard bearer of the complex, but now all ...
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Commodity Futures: Some Developments from 2025
December 16, 2025Commodity futures were not immune to the main themes that moved markets in 2025. As usual, geopolitics, supply/demand factors, and domestic and international economic conditions were the most significant market drivers. However, one factor in particular – economic policy uncertainty ...
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Inside the WBD Bidding War: A Look at Market-Implied Deal Probabilities
December 12, 2025Garrett DeSimone, PhD Saugat Shrestha The escalating takeover battle for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has become a real-time case study in how market prices deal with uncertainty. Paramount Skydance’s hostile $30 per-share cash bid—launched after WBD moved forward with a ...
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Overvalued?
November 24, 2025Aggressive bull markets often lead to speculation about whether they are overvalued or fundamentally unsound and therefore susceptible to a sudden and extreme end. The current AI-powered bull market, which has been in place since ChatGPT blew on to the ...
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Big Tech’s Dominance & Rising Crash Risk
November 13, 2025On “Liberation Day”, markets experienced a sharp reset. Since that time, the subsequent rebound in U.S. equities has been led overwhelmingly by the top 10 names in the S&P500 (‘SPX’). As shown in the chart below, this portfolio, dominated by ...
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SPX 0DTE Covered Call: Optimal Strike Selection
October 21, 2025Two strategies appear to be dominating both retail and institutional trading in today's market: covered call ETFs, pulling in billions of AUM, and Zero-day-to-expiration (0DTE) options, now accounting for more than half of SPX options volume. Let’s combine the two ...
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