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Y. An and A. Huber: Demand Propagation Through Traded Risk Factors

February 14, 2025

We jointly analyze foreign exchange trading and returns to identify traded risk factors and study how demand shocks propagate through them. We propose a novel procedure to net out diversifiable risks induced by trading across currencies and find that three factors — Dollar, Carry, and Euro-Yen — explain 90% of non-diversifiable trading-induced risk. These factors are priced both unconditionally and conditionally on trading. Instrumental variables analysis reveals that these factors’ prices rise 5 to 30 bps per $1 billion demand shock. Combining factor-level price sensitivity with assets’ factor exposures, we quantify cross-multipliers for 17 currencies and seven asset classes.

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