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T. Neururer and G. Papadakis: Bundled guidance and changes in expected volatility

February 18, 2025

In this study, we reexamine bundled managerial guidance and its effect on uncertainty levels around earnings announcements. We extend prior literature by using term structure adjusted implied volatilities, analyzing earnings and non-earnings guidance, and controlling for contemporaneous equity market reactions. We find that adjusted implied volatilities fall with bundled guidance but the economic magnitude is much smaller when compared to unadjusted implied volatilities used in prior studies. We also find that quarterly and annual guidance have similar effects on uncertainty. However, we find little evidence that earnings guidance reduces uncertainty. Instead, our results suggest that revenue and other forms of bundled guidance reduce uncertainty levels. These results hold even when adjusting for equity returns around earnings announcement suggesting a unique effect of guidance on expected return variances.

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