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S. K. Lu: Option Implied Timing with Ambiguity and Risk

March 7, 2025

By timing exposure to option implied information based on ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) and risk, one can earn superior risk-adjusted returns, larger utility gains for mean variance investors, and an alpha even above that of volatility managed portfolios in Moreira & Muir (2017). These results are attributed to the contribution of timing ambiguity, conditional on a high (low) probability of favorable returns that is proxied with low (high) volatility levels, which allows investors to benefit from a positive (negative) ambiguity premium that stems from probability-varying ambiguity preferences shown in Brenner & Izhakian (2018). Even after robustness tests that simulate real-world conditions, controlling for returns that stem from the low risk anomaly or volatility timing strategies, my option implied timing approach still produces superior outperformance when compared to a set of timing approaches.

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