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M. Leippold, C.C. Senni & S. Vaghefi: Policy Shocks and Algorithmic Infrastructure Dependence

June 17, 2026

We study how firms exposed to concentrated algorithmic infrastructure are repriced when U.S. export controls alter access to that infrastructure. We construct an Algorithmic Dependence Index (ADI) from 89,965 corporate 10-K filings measuring exposure to cloud platforms, AI accelerators, and semiconductor supply chains. Around nineteen policy events between 2018 and 2025, a one-standard-deviation increase in ADI predicts -0.201% lower three-day abnormal returns (t = -2.39); on the options-listed subsample the effect strengthens to -0.299%. Infrastructure providers are insulated. The mechanism is regime uncertainty rather than directional restriction: loosening events hurt high-ADI firms as much as tightening events, and implied volatility rises for dependent firms even when headlines signal relaxation.

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