• Skip to main content
  • Skip to footer

OptionMetrics

search
  • About Us
    • Who We Serve
    • Why OptionMetrics
    • Leadership
  • Data Products
    • Equities
      • United States
      • Europe
      • Asia
      • Canada
      • ETFs
    • Futures
    • Signed Volume
    • Implied Beta
    • Dividend
      • Implied Dividend
      • Dividend Forecasting
  • Research
  • Blog
  • News & Events
  • Careers
  • Contact

P. Höfler: Volatility Surfaces and Expected Option Returns

June 26, 2024

This paper applies deep learning techniques to uncover novel return predictability in the cross-section of delta-hedged equity options. I demonstrate sizable profits in long-short option portfolios using a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) which automatically extracts relevant patterns from the implied volatility surface. Portfolio returns remain statistically and economically significant even after accounting for transaction costs. The CNN subsumes some commonly used predictors and cannot be fully explained by option-based characteristics. I further show that the CNN generates abnormal returns compared to a latent factor model that is based on a broad range of option and stock characteristics. Finally, I provide evidence that the model can also be used to predict returns of alternative option positions such as straddles.

Download

Share this post:
  • Facebook
  • Pinterest
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
OptionMetrics Logo
  • About Us
  • Who We Serve
  • Why OptionMetrics
  • Leadership
  • Data Products
  • Equities
  • Futures
  • Signed Volume
  • Implied Beta
  • Dividend Forecasting
  • Research
  • Blog
  • News & Events
  • Careers
  • Contact Us
  • Support Request
Stay Connected

dashicons-linkedin dashicons-twitter dashicons-facebook-alt

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply

© 2025 OptionMetrics, LLC. All Rights Reserved. | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Accessibility | Site Map