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L. Mu: Ross Recovery Theorem, Risk-Free Rates, and Risk-Neutral Returns

January 17, 2025

This paper investigates the information embedded in state prices, specifically risk-free rates and risk-neutral returns, and highlights the limitations of the Ross recovery theorem. We theoretically demonstrate the application of Ross recovery under flat term structures of risk-free rates and risk-neutral returns. We propose novel empirical approaches incorporating implicit conditions related to risk-free rates and risk-neutral returns. Using S&P 500 options data, we find that the Ross recovery theorem not only fails to align with market realities but also offers limited additional information compared to risk-neutral probabilities.

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