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H. Malloch, A. Aspris, J. Svec: Option Implied Dividends and the Market Risk Premium

March 25, 2025

We propose a new method for computing a lower bound to the expected future dividend component of the market risk premium from observed option prices. We find that our estimate of future dividend yields has similar characteristics to future realized dividend yields, exhibits significant volatility, is a strong predictor of the realized dividend yield and constitutes at least 27% of the total market risk premium in the US.

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