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G. Bakshi, J. Crosby, X. Gao, and J. W. Hansen: A Theory of Small Maturity Effects and Data Realities of 7DTE Treasury Options across Tenors

January 17, 2025

This study introduces data on weekly expiring (7DTE) Treasury options and presents two observations. First, the 7DTE risk-neutral distributions of the 30-year bond futures are right-shifted compared to their 10-year counterparts. Second, the return skewness for both tenors changes direction, with the 30 (10)-year exhibiting positive (negative) skewness on average. We propose a model with two Poisson processes and stochastic intensity rates as an explanation. The model accounts for correlated price jump distributions, differing in expected jump sizes between the tenors, for both down and up movements. The estimated 7DTE model supports the theoretical implications of the two empirical observations.

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