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C. Russo, and A. Martino: Climate Physical and Transition Risk: Upside Vs Downside tail risks

August 8, 2025

This paper investigates the impact of physical and transition climate risks on European option markets. We find that physical risks do not play any role, while transition risk uncertainty increases left-tail implied volatility slope by 0.002, reflecting higher downside protection costs, and decreases the right-tail implied volatility slope by 0.001, highlighting limited future upside opportunities. Climate transition risks’ prominence may arise from their lower uncertainty, driven by global momentum for greener policies and commitments like net-zero targets. In contrast, physical risks’ unpredictability and mitigating factors like insurance or government interventions may explain their limited market impact.

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