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A. Naranjo, M. Nimalendran, Y. Wu: Betting on Elusive Returns: Retail Trading in Complex Options

March 25, 2025

We study the role of financial product complexity in retail investor trading. We find retail trading in complex options surged with the introduction of zero-commissions, and these traders prefer strategies with high volatility, embedded leverage, and lottery-like features. Model-free subjective expectations of volatility extracted from their trades show significant optimism bias. Importantly, their trades on average yield negative returns of -16.4% over three days, with losses increasing with complexity. Our findings suggest that retail investors do not fully grasp the risk/returns trade-offs in complex strategies, and they are lured by their inherent leverage and promise of lottery-like payoffs.

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