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F. Chabi-Yo, E. Gourier, and H. Langlois: Option-Implied Risk Premia with Intertemporal Hedging

September 8, 2025

The equity and variance risk premia at a horizon T 1 depend on the risk of changes in the future economic environment beyond T 1. We derive novel estimates of these risk premia that account for intertemporal risk hedging and embed information on the market’s term structure of risk. Crucially, our risk premia can be measured ex ante using option prices. We find that intertemporal hedging accounts for up to 80% of the equity and variance risk premia. In particular, intertemporal hedging increases the equity risk premium and decreases the variance risk premium in times of market expansion, characterized by long investors’ horizons. Our estimates improve the out-of-sample R2 of market return prediction by a factor of up to 2.

 

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