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M. Shafaati, Don M. Chance and R. Brooks: Decomposing the Systematic and Idiosyncratic Components of the Diffusive and Tail Risks in Individual Equity Options

August 1, 2025

Implied volatility surfaces of individual equity options exhibit persistent volatility, pronounced skew, and upward-sloping term structures. These features correlate with market index patterns, but also reflect stock-specific sources of return variation. We develop an affine jump-diffusion model that decomposes returns into systematic and idiosyncratic diffusive and jump components, incorporating leverage effects, asymmetric jumps, and a time-varying jump intensity. Estimated on 50 large-cap U.S. stocks from 2006-2021, the model closely matches the dynamics of implied volatility and yields substantially lower pricing errors than nested alternatives. It offers novel insights into the risk-neutral dynamics of equity return variation.

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