A. Pazarbasi, P. Schneider, G. Vilkov: Sentimental Recovery

October 31, 2019

We extract subjective risk-neutral and physical distributions from option quotes on S&P 500 and VIX futures according to agents’ sentiment. Without assumptions on preferences or underlying processes, we only impose a good-deal bound on the distributions to recover the bivariate distribution of the S&P 500 and VIX. We devise optimal Sharpe ratio trading strategies in S&P500 and VIX futures markets that are subjective to the agents, and implement them at the observed quotes.