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E. Wilson: Hedge Funds With(out) Edge

July 18, 2023

I propose a new benchmark to evaluate hedge fund performance: the returns to shorting CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futures. The informativeness of this benchmark leads to a new methodology that is able to predict hedge fund performance. Specifically, it separates hedge funds, ex-ante, into one group that delivers higher sharpe ratios and positive skewness (SR of 0.52 and Skew of 4.30) while the other group has lower sharpe ratios and negative skewness (SR of 0.15 and Skew of -0.83), out-of-sample (OOS). I refer to the former group as those hedge funds with edge, in contrast to the latter group as those hedge funds that are without edge. This approach cannot be explained or replicated by previously known methods. Lastly, I show that my empirical findings can be explained by a model that features traders with extrapolative expectations.

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