News & Events

Opinion: A new economic indicator is saying there’s no sign of a U.S. recession

June 5, 2018

A new economic indicator, based on stock index options prices, predicts the U.S. economy is poised to expand robustly with no sign of a recession in sight.

Moreover, this highly unconventional forecasting tool has a record of accuracy greater than traditional forecasting variables, especially noteworthy as some economists who rely on traditional indicators are forecasting a recession in 2019, and a growing number are predicting one in 2020.